风速时间序列混沌判定方法比较研究

混沌识别是对非线性时间序列进行混沌预测的前提。针对时间序列风速确定性与随机性相结合的复杂非线性特征,研究了不同的混沌识别方法,并对风速时间序列进行混沌特征识别。应用随机噪声、周期运动及经典混沌系统的时间序列对所选方法进行可靠性验证。对美国国家风能研究中心M2测风塔实测时间序列风速数据进行非线性混沌特征识别。结果表明:风速时间序列具有明显的混沌特征;各风速时间序列表现出不同程度的混沌特征;各混沌识别方法对风速时间序列混沌特征的表达形式不同,互为补充,相互验证。     

Influence of particle contact models on soil response of poorly graded sand during cavity expansion in discrete element simulation

The discrete element method (DEM) has been extensively adopted to investigate many complex geotechnical related problems due to its capability to incorporate the discontinuous nature of granular materials. In particular, when simulating large deformations or distortion of soil (e.g. cavity expansion), DEM can be very effective as other numerical solutions may experience convergence problems. Cavity expansion theory has widespread applications in geotechnical engineering, particularly to the problems concerning in situ testing, pile installation and so forth. In addition, the behaviour of geomaterials in a macro-level is utterly determined by microscopic properties, highlighting the importance of contact models. Despite the fact that there are numerous contact models proposed to mimic the realistic behaviour of granular materials, there are lack of studies on the effects of these contact models on the soil response. Hence, in this study, a series of three-dimensional numerical simulations with different contact constitutive models was conducted to simulate the response of sandy soils during cylindrical cavity expansion. In this numerical investigation, three contact models, i.e. linear contact model, rolling resistance contact model, and Hertz contact model, are considered. It should be noted that the former two models are linear based models, providing linearly elastic and frictional plasticity behaviours, whereas the latter one consists of nonlinear formulation based on an approximation of the theory of Mindlin and Deresiewicz. To examine the effects of these contact models, several cylindrical cavities were created and expanded gradually from an initial radius of 0.055 m to a final radius of 0.1 m. The numerical predictions confirm that the calibrated contact models produced similar results regarding the variations of cavity pressure, radial stress, deviatoric stress, volumetric strain, as well as the soil radial displacement. However, the linear contact model may result in inaccurate predictions when highly angular soil particles are involved. In addition, considering the excessive soil displacement induced by the pile installation (i.e. cavity expansion), a minimum distance of 11a (a is the cavity radius) is recommend for practicing engineers to avoid the potential damages to the existing piles and adjacent structures.     

工程建设标准客观优先度评价研究

在工程建设标准的制定和修订过程中，如何科学地确定编制顺序一直是困扰标准管理部门的难题，采用传统方式“按需制标”，具有盲目性、主观性，容易造成标准在制定和修订过程中的互相重复、滞后与矛盾。为了保证标准制定和修订工作的协调性，指导标准体系中各标准的制修订顺序，引入复杂网络拓扑结构，将同一标准类型下的标准构成功能团，根据相互之间的关系形成复杂网络，采用剥落算法对其网络节点重要性排序，进而确定标准制修订的优先度。通过对建筑给水排水工程规范标准修订的实证分析，总结工程建设标准的网络拓扑优先度评价的算法模型，实现制定和修订顺序的自动计算，从而更加科学地指导标准的制定和修订工作     

Co-creation of value and the project context: Towards application on the case of Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station

The research analyses decisions as evaluative outcomes regarding project value. The UK-French Hinkley Point C Nuclear Power Station provides the case study. Value is traditionally assessed as inputs and outputs. Here, value is conceptualized as a co-created value proposition at the front-end with implications for realization post-completion. Service-dominant logic (SDL) provides the theoretical lens and contributes to a methodological approach for examining projects. Decision-making outcomes provide the evidence from a range of data sources, including reports and commentaries. The methods are interpretative. The findings show that decision-making extends beyond the time-cost-quality/scope dimensions. The long-term issues regarding value realized are often overlooked. Stakeholders and individual actors have mainly focused upon managing political and financial risks, especially time and cost. The research poses challenges to project management analysis, SDL and research design in assessing evidence. Addressing these issues facilitates a knowledge contribution to SDL theorization and the field of project management.     

Study and comparison of the unique selling propositions (USPs) of free-to-use multinational patent search systems

The article analyses and compares some free-to-use patent search services which are not managed by patent authorities but which may offer unique selling propositions (USPs) beyond the expected, standard, search functions. Those services selected for this study are Google Patents, Lens, Patent Inspiration, Free Patents Online, SureChEMBL and Octimine. For this comparative study a total set of 66 criteria were analysed for each of the six search services. Furthermore the USPs and perceived advantages and disadvantages were identified. The study concluded that some of these search services are better suited for general prior art searches or patent analysis while others are applicable for patent searches in specific fields like biotechnology or pharmaceuticals.     

Test sample allocation method for testability verification test

An extended failure mode effect and criticality analysis (FMECA)-based sample allocation method for testability verification is presented in this study to deal with the poor representativeness of test sample sets and the randomness of the testability evaluation results caused by unreasonable selection of failure samples. First, the fault propagation intensity is introduced as part of the extended information of FMECA, and the sample allocation impact factors of component units and failure modes are determined under this framework. Then, the failure mode similarity and impact factor support are defined, and the game decision method for weighing the relationship between similarity and support is proposed to obtain the weight of failure mode impact factor. Finally, a two-step allocation framework of test samples is formulated to realize the sample allocation of component units and failure modes. This method is applied to the testability verification test of a launch control system. Results show that this method can obtain more representative test samples compared with the traditional sample allocation method while effectively reducing randomness of single testability evaluation result.     

An expectation operator for belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer theory*

ABSTRACT

The main contribution of this paper is a new definition of expected value of belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence. Our definition shares many of the properties of the expectation operator in probability theory. Also, for Bayesian belief functions, our definition provides the same expected value as the probabilistic expectation operator. A traditional method of computing expected of real-valued functions is to first transform a D–S belief function to a corresponding probability mass function, and then use the expectation operator for probability mass functions. Transforming a belief function to a probability function involves loss of information. Our expectation operator works directly with D–S belief functions. Another definition is using Choquet integration, which assumes belief functions are credal sets, i.e. convex sets of probability mass functions. Credal sets semantics are incompatible with Dempster's combination rule, the center-piece of the D–S theory. In general, our definition provides different expected values than, e.g. if we use probabilistic expectation using the pignistic transform or the plausibility transform of a belief function. Using our definition of expectation, we provide new definitions of variance, covariance, correlation, and other higher moments and describe their properties.     

采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应

地下煤层开采引起的岩层运动是一系列安全和环境问题的根源,研究采动岩层运动规律是安全、高效、绿色开采的重要基础。通过对岩层运动过程的研究,揭示了采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应及其对岩层运动规律的影响机制。研究表明:采动覆岩经历了卸荷膨胀与再压实的动态过程。受关键层结构控制,上覆岩层由下向上成组破断运动,关键层破断前,阻断了上覆载荷向下方岩层的传递,导致其因卸荷而产生膨胀,包括碎胀与弹性膨胀。随着关键层破断高度增加,覆岩卸荷高度同步增大,因卸荷而膨胀的岩层总厚度不断增大;同时卸荷煤岩也受到已破断关键层载荷的压实作用,从而造成覆岩卸荷膨胀总量的不断变化。将这种覆岩卸荷膨胀总量随覆岩卸荷高度动态变化的现象定义为采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应,进而建立了理论模型,并通过淮北海孜煤矿巨厚火成岩下采煤覆岩裂隙实测进行了验证。结果表明,采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应对采动岩层运动规律产生了重要影响,如影响覆岩关键层下离层量,影响覆岩关键层贯通破断的高度,影响不同开采条件的地表下沉系数等。采动覆岩卸荷膨胀累积效应改变了对离层存在形式的传统认识,该效应的存在导致关键层下最大离层量一般小于采高的10%,覆岩可注浆充填空间并非传统认识上的“离层区”,而主要是注浆充填压力“压实”作用下将覆岩卸荷累积膨胀所转化出的那部分空间,该发现指导了覆岩隔离注浆充填绿色开采技术的创新研发及其在建筑物压煤开采中的成功实践。     

Pregnancy by Assisted Reproductive Technology Is Associated with Shorter Telomere Length in Neonates

Telomere length (TL) influences the development of lifestyle-related diseases, and neonatal TL may influence their prevalence. Various factors have been reported to affect neonatal TL. Although the fetus is exposed to multiple conditions in utero, the main factors affecting the shortening of neonatal TL are still not known. In this study, we sought to identify factors that influence fetal TL. A total of 578 mother-newborn pairs were included for TL analysis. TL was measured in genomic DNA extracted from cord blood samples using quantitative PCR. The clinical factors examined at enrollment included the following intrauterine environmental factors: maternal age, assisted reproductive technology (ART) used, body mass index (BMI), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), maternal stress, smoking, alcohol consumption, preterm delivery, small-for-gestational-age, neonatal sex, and placental weight. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to verify the relationship between neonatal TL and these clinical factors. The median neonatal TL to single-copy gene ratio was 1.0. Pregnancy with ART was among the 11 factors associated with shorter neonatal TL. From multiple regression analysis, we determined that neonatal TL was significantly shorter for pregnancies in the ART group than in the other groups. We conclude that pregnancy with ART is associated with shorter neonatal TL.     

伞帽用高铬铸铁在热强碱腐蚀环境下的磨损分析

针对氧化铝行业中常用的Cr28和Cr20高铬铸铁伞帽在相同工况条件下的磨损机理进行分析,并对比研究了实际生产中两种失效材料的成分、组织及性能。结果表明,伞帽部件在高温强碱腐蚀条件下受到外界冲刷时,磨损量由微切削磨损与变形磨损这两种机制共同决定。含铬量较高的Cr28高铬铸铁,其冲刷和抗腐蚀磨损性能均优于Cr20高铬铸铁。伞帽服役寿命主要受浆料和表层的铸铁材料两大因素影响。两种试验材料经淬火+回火处理后,基体组织中主要为回火马氏体+M₇C₃型碳化物+少量残留奥氏体,其中含铬量较高的Cr28高铬铸铁中共晶碳化物含量更高,且分布更加弥散,其平均硬度值为64.0 HRC,高于Cr20高铬铸铁的60.2 HRC。最终确定Cr28高铬铸铁作为伞帽材质更能满足氧化铝生产及设备检修周期的需要。